🤖 ML Stock Forecasting Report

AAPL Analysis

Generated on: 2026-02-18 21:00:52

📋 Trading Strategy Overview

This analysis uses a daily-signal threshold strategy. Each model produces one prediction per trading day — an expected log-return for the next day. The trading rules are:

Coverage in the metrics table shows what fraction of days the model actually traded (signal exceeded threshold). The remaining days the model sat in cash, avoiding uncertain moves.

🎯 Next Day Trading Recommendation

Action: BUY

Expected Return: 1.92%

Raw DA: 85.2% (Buy & Hold baseline: 53.0%)

📊 Next Day Price Predictions & Recommendations

next_day_predictions

📊 Executive Summary

This comprehensive ML analysis of AAPL achieves a best raw directional accuracy of 85.2% (vs Buy & Hold baseline of 53.0%).

📈 Model Performance Metrics

Model RMSE MAE Raw DA Confident DA Coverage Trades
Buy & Hold (baseline) 53.0% 100.0%
LINEAR 0.0124 0.0091 76.5% 77.5% 87.7% 213 / 243
RF 0.0125 0.0077 82.3% 87.6% 83.1% 202 / 243
XGB 0.0121 0.0072 85.2% 90.5% 82.7% 201 / 243
GBR 0.0115 0.0071 84.8% 90.3% 84.8% 206 / 243
ELASTICNET 0.0151 0.0102 72.0% 79.0% 74.5% 181 / 243
EXTRATREES 0.0124 0.0079 84.4% 86.8% 84.0% 204 / 243
SGD 0.0131 0.0089 79.0% 81.0% 88.9% 216 / 243

📖 Metric Descriptions

  • RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) — average magnitude of prediction errors, penalizing larger errors more heavily. Lower is better.
  • MAE (Mean Absolute Error) — average absolute difference between predicted and actual log-returns. Lower is better.
  • Raw DA (Raw Directional Accuracy) — percentage of days where the model correctly predicted the direction of price movement (up/down), calculated on all trading days without any filtering.
  • Confident DA (High-Confidence Directional Accuracy) — directional accuracy calculated only on days where the model's predicted return exceeded the signal threshold (±0.2%). Represents the trading strategy accuracy — the model trades only when confident.
  • Coverage — fraction of trading days where the model generates a trading signal (|prediction| > threshold). Higher coverage = more frequent trading.
  • Trades — absolute number of days the model traded out of total test days (e.g. "228 / 251" means the model traded on 228 out of 251 available days).
  • Buy & Hold (baseline) — directional accuracy of a naive strategy that always predicts "price goes up". Equals the percentage of days the market actually rose. Models should exceed this to demonstrate real predictive power.

📊 Model Comparison & Error Analysis

model_comparison

📊 Strategy Performance Analysis

strategy_performance

📊 Prediction Stability & Agreement

prediction_stability

📊 Feature Analysis & Correlations

feature_analysis

🎯 Conclusions & Recommendations

⚠️ Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.